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Wandering From the Path? | Monthly Portfolio Update - August 2020

Midway along the journey of our life I woke to find myself in a dark wood, for I had wandered off from the straight path.
Dante, The Divine Comedy: Inferno, Canto I
This is my forty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Total portfolio value $1 848 896 (+$48 777 or 2.7%)
Asset allocation
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The portfolio has increased in value for the fifth consecutive month, and is starting to approach the monthly value last reached in January.
The portfolio has grown over $48 000, or 2.7 per cent this month, reflecting the strong market recovery since late March
[Chart]
The growth in the portfolio was broadly-based across global and Australian equities, with an increase of around 3.8 per cent. Following strong previous rises, gold holdings decreased by around 2.2 per cent, while Bitcoin continued to increase in value (by 2.5 per cent).
Combined, the value of gold and Bitcoin holdings remain at a new peak, while total equity holdings are still below their late January peak to the tune of around $50 000. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio continue to fall below the target allocation.
[Chart]
The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars.
New investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) and the Australian shares equivalent (VAS). These have been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares set out in the portfolio plan.
As the exchange traded funds such as VGS, VAS and Betashares A200 now make up nearly 30 per cent of the overall portfolio, the quarterly payments they provide have increased in magnitude and importance. Early in the journey, third quarter distributions were essentially immaterial events.
Using the same 'median per unit' forecast approach as recently used for half yearly forecasts would suggest a third quarter payout due at the end of September of around $6000. Due to significant announced dividend reductions across this year I am, however, currently assuming this is likely to be significantly lower, and perhaps in the vicinity of $4000 or less.
Finding true north: approach to achieving a set asset allocation
One of the choices facing all investors with a preferred asset allocation is how strictly the target is applied over time, and what variability is acceptable around that. There is a significant body of financial literature around that issue.
My own approach has been to seek to target the preferred asset allocation dynamically, through buying the asset class that is furthest from its target, with new portfolio contributions, and re-investment of paid out distributions.
As part of monitoring asset allocation, I also track a measure of 'absolute' variance, to understand at a whole of portfolio level how far it is from the desired allocation.
This is the sum of the absolute value of variances (e.g. so that being 3 per cent under target in shares, and 7 per cent over target in fixed interest will equal an absolute variance of 10 per cent under this measure).
This measure is currently sitting near its highest level in around 2 years, at 15.0 per cent, as can be seen in the chart below.
[Chart]
The dominant reason for this higher level of variance from target is significant appreciation in the price of gold and Bitcoin holdings.
Mapping the sources of portfolio variances
Changes in target allocations in the past makes direct comparisons problematic, but previous peaks of the variance measure matches almost perfectly past Bitcoin price movements.
For a brief period in January 2018, gold and Bitcoin combined constituted 20 per cent, or 1 in 5 dollars of the entire portfolio. Due to the growth in other equity components of the portfolio since this level has not been subsequently exceeded.
Nonetheless, it is instructive to understand that the dollar value of combined gold and Bitcoin holdings is actually up around $40 000 from that brief peak. With the larger portfolio, this now means they together make up 17.2 per cent of the total portfolio value.
Tacking into the wind of portfolio movements?
The logical question to fall out from this situation is: to what extent should this drive an active choice to sell down gold and Bitcoin until they resume their 10 per cent target allocation?
This would currently imply selling around $130 000 of gold or Bitcoin, and generating a capital gains tax liability of potentially up to $27 000. Needless to say this is not an attractive proposition. Several other considerations lead me to not make this choice:
This approach is a departure from a mechanistic implementation of an asset allocation rule. Rather, the approach I take is pragmatic.
Tracking course drift in the portfolio components
As an example, I regularly review whether a significant fall in Bitcoin prices to its recent lows would alter my monthly decision on where to direct new investments. So far it does not, and the 'signal' continues to be to buy new equities.
Another tool I use is a monthly measurement of the absolute dollar variance of Australian and global shares, as well as fixed interest, from their ideal target allocations.
The chart below sets this out for the period since January 2019. A positive value effectively represents an over-allocation to a sector, a negative value, an under-allocation compared to target.
[Chart]
This reinforces the overall story that, as gold and Bitcoin have grown in value, there emerges a larger 'deficit' to the target. Falls in equities markets across February and March also produce visibly larger 'dollar gaps' to the target allocation.
This graph enables a tracking of the impact of portfolio gains or losses, and volatility, and a better understanding of the practical task of returning to target allocations. Runaway lines in either direction would be evidence that current approaches for returning to targets were unworkable, but so far this does not appear to be the case.
A crossing over: a credit card FI milestone
This month has seen a long awaited milestone reached.
Calculated on a past three year average, portfolio distributions now entirely meet monthly credit card expenses. This means that every credit card purchase - each shopping trip or online purchase - is effectively paid for by average portfolio distributions.
At the start of this journey, distributions were only equivalent to around 40 per cent of credit card expenses. As time has progressed distributions have increased to cover a larger and larger proportion of card expenses.
[Chart]
Most recently, with COVID-19 related restrictions having pushed card expenditure down further, the remaining gap to this 'Credit Card FI' target has closed.
Looked at on an un-smoothed basis, expenditures on the credit card have continued to be slightly lower than average across the past month. The below chart details the extent to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month.
[Chart]
Credit card expenditure makes up around 80 per cent of total spending, so this is not a milestone that makes paid work irrelevant or optional. Similarly, if spending rises as various travel and other restrictions ease, it is possible that this position could be temporary.
Equally, should distributions fall dramatically below long term averages in the year ahead, this could result in average distributions falling faster than average monthly card expenditure. Even without this, on a three year average basis, monthly distributions will decline as high distributions received in the second half of 2017 slowly fall out of the estimation sample.
For the moment, however, a slim margin exists. Distributions are $13 per month above average monthly credit card bills. This feels like a substantial achievement to note, as one unlooked for at the outset of the journey.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 84.8% 114.6%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.5% 139.9%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 82.9% 112.1%
Summary
What feels like a long winter is just passed. The cold days and weeks have felt repetitive and dominated by a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Yet through this time, this wandering off, the portfolio has moved quite steadily back towards it previous highs. That it is even approaching them in the course of just a few months is unexpected.
What this obscures is the different components of growth driving this outcome. The portfolio that is recovering, like the index it follows, is changing in its underlying composition. This can be seen most starkly in the high levels of variance from the target portfolio sought discussed above.
It is equally true, however, of individual components such as international equity holdings. In the case of the United States the overall index performance has been driven by share price growth in just a few information technology giants. Gold and Bitcoin have emerged from the shadows of the portfolio to an unintended leading role in portfolio growth since early 2019.
This month I have enjoyed reading the Chapter by Chapter release of the Aussie FIRE e-book coordinated by Pearler. I've also been reading posts from some newer Australian financial independence bloggers, Two to Fire, FIRE Down Under, and Chasing FIRE Down Under.
In podcasts, I have enjoyed the Mad Fientist's update on his fourth year of financial freedom, and Pat and Dave's FIRE and Chill episodes, including an excellent one on market timing fallacies.
The ASX Australian Investor Study 2020 has also been released - setting out some broader trends in recent Australian investment markets, and containing a snapshot of the holdings, approaches and views of everyday investors. This contained many intriguing findings, such as the median investment portfolio ($130 000), its most frequent components (direct Australian shares), and how frequently portfolios are usually checked - with 61 per cent of investors checking their portfolios at least once a month.
This is my own approach also. Monthly assessments allow me to gauge and reflect on how I or elements of the portfolio may have wandered off the straight way in the middle of the journey. Without this, the risk is that dark woods and bent pathways beckon.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

09-22 18:35 - 'Bitcoin Gift' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Intelligent_Ad8786 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 140-150min

'''
I saw 5 million satoshi being given as a gift on a Twitter page I came across. I immediately participated in the lottery. If I didn't calculate it wrong, it makes about $ 100. I'm leaving the link.

[[link]3
[[link]4
'''
Bitcoin Gift
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: Intelligent_Ad8786
1: twitt*r.com*Coin*ral/s**tus/13**9**112**3444*36 2: www.**intral.**m/excha*ge*reg**ter 3: **i*te*.com/Co**tr*l*status/*3*691211296*44*7*6]^^1 4: **w*c*intra**com/exch*nge*registe*]^^*
Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Crypto.com MCO Visa card: 10% cashback on groceries + 1-5% on other purchases + $50 bonus

I've rewritten my guide completely :)
Crypto.com is now finally shipping their MCO Visa cards in UK & EU! I have received my card this week and immediately got 10% cashback when trying it at Lidl: https://imgur.com/a/ITB39JX
I'm very enthousiastic about Crypto.com myself and all the products they offer. I'll try to explain here as clearly as I can.
I would appreciate it if you'd sign up through my link: https://platinum.crypto.com/sxzbhwuqje or use code sxzbhwuqje in the app. You will also be eligible for the $50 bonus then (see below).

What is Crypto.com?

Crypto.com offers an app with which you can easily buy and sell cryptocurrencies without additional cost. The company exists since 2016 (back then under the name Monaco, hence the MCO abbreviation) and now they have 2 million users.
Next to trading within the app you can also get interest on your cryptocurrencies up to 12% (complete overview here), similar to the likes of Celsius and BlockFi.

The MCO Visa card

Through their app Crypto.com also offers the MCO Visa card. This is a Visa card tied to the MCO cryptocurrency. There are 5 different card tiers and you get:
All cashbacks and bonuses are paid in the MCO cryptocurrency. You can immediately sell the MCO in the app for pounds/euros, which you can use again for purchases with the card if you want.
To get one of the non-free card tiers you need to buy MCO coin and stake them, which means holding on to them for 6 months. After the 6 months you can sell them again at the then current rate. The price of MCO is currently around £4,45 / €5,00, meaning that you have to lock £223 / €250 for six months to get the Ruby Steel card. You'll earn this back in about 7 months (see below),
These are the lower three card tiers:
Card Tier Midnight Blue Ruby Steel Jade Green/Royal Indigo
Stake (hold) None (free card) 50 MCO (~ £223 / €250) 500 MCO (~ £2230 / €2500)
Bonus after staking None $50 (in MCO) $50 (in MCO)
Cashback % 1% 2% 3%
Monthly Spotify Rebate No Yes Yes
Monthly Netflix Rebate No No Yes
LoungeKey Airport Lounge Access No No Yes
Metal card No Yes Yes

Calculation example payback time (7 months)

Below I've made an example calculation for the payback time of the Ruby Steel card, assuming a spend of £1000 / €1000 monthly with the card and that you use Spotify. After 7 months you will have earned back your initial investment :)
But, additionally you also have the 10% cashback on groceries until the end of June plus the worth of your MCO coins that you locked for 6 months. Even if they would be worth only half of what they are worth today, you'd still have a value of £112 / € 225 (see below about price expectation).

Value
$50 bonus immediately after staking £40 / €46
2% cashback on all purchases with the card (assuming montly spend of £1000 / €1000 during 7 months) £140 / €140
Spotify rebate (£10 / €10 per month) £70 / €70
Total £250 / €256

MCO price

The price of the MCO coin has been around £4,50 / €5 for a while. The cards have just been released for UK and EU. Because especially in EU cashback cards are not common, I expect that lots of people would be interested in getting a cashback card like this one. The good thing about that is that the demand for MCO coin would increase (because people need to lock them for 6 months) and I expect that the price of MCO will rise then (there are only 16 million of them, less than Bitcoins).
No guarantees, this is my personal opinion :) I advise you to think about it yourself.

Notes

submitted by blxyy to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Ethereum's Supplygate Has Nuanced Answers & Hard Questions On Money

Following another heated Bitcoin (BTC) vs. Ethereum (ETH) debate, it looks like there is still no consensus on the exact supply of the world's second-most valuable cryptoasset, ETH - or if it even matters. However, there is an approximation. (Updated at 12:51 UTC: updates in bold.)

It's a tale as old as ether-time: a story of a coin which the crypto-villagers have claimed for years has an infinite supply, wondering how and why. Others have been pointing out that there is a discrepancy in numbers on different block explorers.

Part of the Cryptoverse has been up in arms again, demanding for the Ethereum camp to reveal the exact number, as a part of what some have termed "the Supplygate" (a reference to the Watergate scandal in the US).

Much of the discussion lies in the argument that project leaders, developers, and the community must know the exact supply at all times for the coin to be sound money. Others disagree with this assumption.

MakerDAO developer Marc-André Dumas' initial calculations led to a report of 112.43 million. Following a report of a bug in the script, he made a correction to ETH 112.093 million. "You can now be assured that there are are no nasty inflation bug in Ethereum. 112.1M is the number," he stated yesterday.
submitted by ami_nil1987 to DigitalCryptoWorld [link] [comments]

Ethereum's Supplygate Has Nuanced Answers & Hard Questions On Money

Following another heated Bitcoin (BTC) vs. Ethereum (ETH) debate, it looks like there is still no consensus on the exact supply of the world's second-most valuable cryptoasset, ETH - or if it even matters. However, there is an approximation. (Updated at 12:51 UTC: updates in bold.)

It's a tale as old as ether-time: a story of a coin which the crypto-villagers have claimed for years has an infinite supply, wondering how and why. Others have been pointing out that there is a discrepancy in numbers on different block explorers.

Part of the Cryptoverse has been up in arms again, demanding for the Ethereum camp to reveal the exact number, as a part of what some have termed "the Supplygate" (a reference to the Watergate scandal in the US).

Much of the discussion lies in the argument that project leaders, developers, and the community must know the exact supply at all times for the coin to be sound money. Others disagree with this assumption.

MakerDAO developer Marc-André Dumas' initial calculations led to a report of 112.43 million. Following a report of a bug in the script, he made a correction to ETH 112.093 million. "You can now be assured that there are are no nasty inflation bug in Ethereum. 112.1M is the number," he stated yesterday.
submitted by ami_nil1987 to airdropfactory [link] [comments]

Doing the Math on the S4E10 eCoin Transaction...

In this week's Mr Robot episode, Darlene sits on a park bench with Dom, and distributes the money she stole from the Deus Group to everybody, evenly. I timed the transaction as it happened in the show. It was 24 seconds, between her hitting return and seeing the following message on her screen: "*Transfers Complete. All Wallets Updated*" This processing time includes a message that says, "cleaning coins through crypto tumbler". It took 1 minute and 16 seconds for the transaction to tumble, process, and for the recipients to begin to get notices that they received money in their accounts.
If you have worked with bitcoin, you know that cryptocurrency does not work like this. Transferring money is a slow and sometimes expensive process, as transaction fees eat into every transaction. I know that eCoin isn't necissarily bitcoin, because it's controlled by eCorp, but it's fun to think about what happens if eCoin works like bitcoin does today...
How much money was transferred?
According to Forbes, the most wealthy people in the world are worth a combined $8.7 trillion, or $2.7 trillion. It depends on which Forbes list you are looking at. On the actual Forbes web site, they say the richest people in the world are worth $8.7 trillion, but they do not state how many of the richest people in the world are worth that much. If you look at sites like Victor Media, they publish a table of the 100 most wealthy people, and say they got the list from Forbes. They probably did purchase the list from Forbes. If I put the Victor Media list into excel, and add all the values in the net worth column, that number comes out to $2.7 trillion. So Forbes might be talking about a list that is more than the top 100 people, and sell the top 100 people list to sites like Victor Media? I don't know.
Either way, we are talking about somewhere between $2.7 and $8.7 trillion.
How many people did the money go to?
That's complicated. There was no global montage showing people celebrating all over the world (which I found a little surprising, even though I still love how this episode was shot). The only indication of a truly global transfer, to every individual in the world, is a TV screen in the airport saying that, "Global eCoin Payout... Deus group collapses as wealth spreads around the world." So Darlene could have sent the money to every individual with an eCoin wallet in the world, or she could be sending them to every American, or to everybody in the developed world. I doubt the average rice farmer in Indonesia is really using eCoin, but it's possible. If she only sent it to every American, our wealth tends to spread around the globe pretty fast, so that's possible, too.
Lets work with World Bank population numbers for all three of these possibilities...
World Population: 7.6 billion people
Global North (AKA the developed world): 1.24 billion people
United States: 327 million people
So we have 6 possibilities for how much money was sent to each person...
People Total Money Money Per Capita Satoshis
7.6 billion $2.7 trillion $355.53 4,739,471
1.21 billion $2.7 trillion $2230.82 29,741,808
327 million $2.7 trillion $8252.65 110,079,512
7.6 billion $8.7 trillion $1145.60 15,279,332
1.21 billion $8.7 trillion $7188.22 95,883,716
327 million $8.7 trillion $26591.89 355,275,242
How much would this transaction cost with bitcoin?
Aside from the fact that eCoin probably functions differently than bitcoin, this is a very complex question. I'm definitely not as sure about these numbers as the other numbers I have, but I'll do my best to come up with useful, realistic numbers. If you are more familiar with the block chain than me, please correct me.
The coins were taken from 100 different Deus Group accounts. Lets say each transaction launders through a bitcoin tumbler 1,000 times. I'm going to ignore transaction fees for the tumbling process, because I don't fully understand the details of tumbling, but 1,000 times seems reasonable to me.
That means that there are 100 x 1,000 = 10,000 inputs in any transaction that spends all the money from the Deus group.
For outputs... for simplicity's sake, I will make the conservative assumption that everybody has one eCoin wallet. That means somewhere between 327 million and 7.6 billion outputs. Accounting for everybody having multiple wallets would make the transaction even bigger, but this is a good starting point to get a feel for what this transaction would look like, in the real world.
How long will this transaction take to process?
There is a bidding process and a bit of politics involved in processing a cryptocurrency transaction. For simplicity, I'll assume we bid enough that this transaction gets priority treatment from the bitcoin miners.
According to blockchain.com, transactions happen on the block chain at a rate of roughly 3.5 transactions per second. At that rate, the tumbling would take roughly 48 minutes, rather than the few seconds it took for Darlene to tumble this money.
According to buybitcoinworldwide.com's fee calculator, here are the transaction sizes, the transaction fees involved (in US Dollars), and the time it would take at 3.5 transactions per second...
Inputs Outputs Size Cost Time
10,000 7.6 billion 240.4737 Gb $38,884,280.55 68.85 years
10,000 1.21 billion 38.32587 Gb $6,192,571.09 10.96 years
10,000 327 million 10.35582 Gb $1,673,260.46 2.96 years
So this transaction would take years to go through, and it pays Evil Corp somewhere between $1.6 and $38 million. In the real world, most of that money would go to Chinese bitcoin miners.
What would the impact be?
A one time windfall of $327 per capita would probably not trigger hyperinflation in America. The largest payout we calculated was $26.5k, and I doubt that would cause hyperinflation, either. Regular inflation? Yes. Hyperinflation? Probably not.
It might lead to hyperinflation in other countries, though, because of differences in purchasing power.
Purchasing power parity is a number that describes the differences in the cost of goods and services around the world. $5 in America will buy you a big mac, but if you go to, say, Indonesia, you can buy a lot more with that $5, because Indonesia is full of people who make something like 25 cents a week.
OECD.org publishes PPP (purchasing power parity) numbers for countries all around the world. If you want to know how far your dollar will stretch, on average, in a foreign country, consult this list. If you have $100 in America, you can expect it to be worth $100 worth of American goods and services, so on the OECD table, it has a PPP of 1.0. If you take that $100 to, say, the UK, where the PPP is 0.7, you can expect that $100 to be worth $70 worth of goods and services. If you take that $100 to Australia, where the PPP is 1.48, you can expect that $100 to buy roughly $148 worth of goods and services.
If Elliot and Darlene were genius economists, I might expect them to account for PPP in their payout. They would have to be geniuses, to predict what PPP is doing after events like the 5/9 hack, because their best data would be out of date, so they would have to use all kinds of fancy regressions and tricks to figure out how that would work in such a volatile world economy. They definitely aren't economists, though, so I'll assume they sent the same nominal amount to everybody.
So what's the range on how much purchasing power this transaction gives people around the world? In 2018, the highest PPP number on the OECD list is Indonesia, with a PPP of 4,245.613140. The lowest PPP on the list is Lithuania, with a PPP of 0.457582. Lets see how this shakes out in each of these countries...
$ Per Capita Lithuania (0.46) Indonesia (4,245.61)
$355.53 $162.68 $1,509,442.84
$2,230.82 $1,020.78 $9,471,198.70
$8,252.65 $3,776.26 $35,037,559.28
$1,145.60 $524.20 $4,863,774.41
$7,188.22 $3,289.20 $30,518,401.29
$26,591.89 $12,167.97 $112,898,877.60
What would this cause? People might predict a lot of different things. The Yang gang people probably strong opinions on this. I have a bachelor's degree in economics, so I believe I can predict that most mainstream economists would predict the following...
In Lithuania, when they get a few hundred to a few thousand dollars, they probably raise a pint to F Society, then put the rest towards a house or car payment, or buy themselves something nice. Minor inflation would happen, probably starting at the pubs, and that would worry financial types, but it would not cause any kind of major economic catastrophe.
In Indonesia, where everybody becomes an asset millionaire overnight, they will probably have hyperinflation, mass social upheaval, and violence.
In conclusion...
TL;DR: What Darlene did last night with eCoin isn't actually possible with bitcoin, and the impact in America might not be as great as you think, but the impact would be much bigger in poorer parts of the world.
submitted by bubblesort to MrRobot [link] [comments]

Upon the Fortune of this Present Year | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - November 2019

My ventures are not in one bottom trusted, Nor to one place; nor is my whole estate Upon the fortune of this present year Therefore my merchandise makes me not sad
Shakespeare, The Merchant of Venice (1596)
This is my thirty-sixth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.
Portfolio goals
My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19 per cent, or a nominal return of 7.19 per cent, and are expressed in 2018 dollars.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $797 618 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 218 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $81 294 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 367 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $158 769 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $28 471 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $268 114 Telstra shares (TLS) – $2 057 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $9 996 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 100 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $98 376 Secured physical gold – $15 868 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $16 915 Bitcoin – $128 630 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $17 535 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 377 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 418
Total portfolio value: $1 793 753 (+$33 713)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 43.2% (1.8% under) Global shares – 22.9% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.2% Total international shares – 28.4% (1.6% under) Total shares – 71.6% (3.4% under) Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over) Australian bonds – 4.8% International bonds – 9.8% Total bonds – 14.6% (0.4% under) Gold – 6.4% Bitcoin – 7.2% Gold and alternatives – 13.5% (3.5% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
This month the value of the portfolio increased again by around $33 000 in total, building on the previous two months of growth.
[Chart]
The equity part of the portfolio has grown by around $50 000 to now reach over $1.25 million for the first time. This increase includes new contributions and the last part of the previous June distributions being 'averaged into' equity markets. The equity component of the portfolio has increased by around 40 per cent this calendar year.
The only other major movement in the monthly value of the portfolio has been a sharp downward movement in the price of Bitcoin, and a small increase in the value of bond holdings.
[Chart]
The contributions this month went entirely into the Vanguard Australian shares ETF (VAS.ASX), to reduce the gap to both the overall target equity allocation, and to achieve the target split between Australian and global shares. From this month onwards I expect more regular variations in whether new contributions go to either Australian or global shares, based on keeping this target allocation constant.
Charting errors and wrong bearings - the nature of long-term returns
Over the last month, as the end destination starts to appear a little clearer in the distance, the issue of the nature of long-term returns has been front of mind.
There is a strong literature and body of academic work around long-term equity return expectations. Much of this has informed my thinking, and has over time found its way into the corners of financial independence movement through the avenues of the so-called Trinity and Bengen '4 per cent' studies (pdf), and a range of calculators that use historical data to help guide investors expectations around feasible future returns.
Yet, as I have noted before, future states of the world are not drawn from the same distribution as the past - or as the British writer G K Chesterton evocatively put it - 'wildness lies in wait'. Most often this issue is glided over neatly (including by myself) with assured sounding phrases such as 'based on history'.
The works of Nassim Taleb, most particularly Fooled by Randomness, and The Black Swan, provide a fuller perspective on these issues. Recently though, reading a 2017 paper Stock Market Charts You Never Saw provided a unique and arresting view of their application to long-term return projections.
The paper is long and detailed, but makes some fundamental points for consideration. It provides a challenging perspective on investment returns that falls almost completely out of mainstream discussions of the topic in the financial independence arena.
To summarise, the paper highlights that:
As the paper notes:
"When investment advisors counsel that stocks are the best bet for a long investment horizon, they should append the acknowledgement: “if my market timing is good.” When advisors argue for stocks over bonds, they should append the caveat “as long as you are not French, or Italian, or Japanese, or Swiss, and provided that the 20th century is a better guide to the future than the 19th century.” For real investors with their limited time horizons, who may reside anywhere in the world, there have been times when both stock recommendations were bad."
The issue of the primacy of total returns, compared to income returns is also bracingly challenged with reference to the drawdown phase:
Once portfolio accumulation ceases with retirement, portfolio income must be spent to live. Under those circumstances real price return, over short periods lasting two or three decades, becomes an important metric. By that measure, an investment in stocks has been dicey indeed.
Usefully, the paper sets out (at the end) both conventional charts, and alternative representations of the same returns data, aimed at illustrating the hidden biases and properties of standard charts of market returns.
In short, the paper poses challenges to many conventional investment tenets assumed to be true and widely repeated within financial independence discussions. Often these tenets are promoted with the sound and well-meaning goal of reducing new or existing investors caution or level of worry around possible falls in equity markets. The question this work implicitly poses is, in the process, are distorted expectations unintentionally being promoted?
Drawing out the lessons - understanding and responding to risks
What are the practical implications of this? The most obvious is to look closely at how data is presented and to think carefully about how the assumptions implicit in that presentation line up against ones own situation.
Some other implications include:
In other words - to paraphrase Shakespeare's Antonio - not trusting ones ventures to one ship, place, or a fortune upon the present year.
Progress
Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 112.2% 153.0% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 90.6% 123.5% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 103.0% 140.4% Total expenses - $89 000 pa 84.5% 115.1%
Summary
As the year begins to draw to a close, a restlessness to see its final outcomes, in dividends and portfolio growth presses itself forward. It is in fact a small echo of one of the strong temptations of the middle of the FI journey - a desire to wish away time itself.
Some potential upcoming changes and uncertainties in work situation have added force to this temptation, forcing some thoughts about different potential balances between work and other elements of daily life could be.
By distance, the intended journey is around ninety per cent over. At times this introduces both an elegiac quality to, and a premature desire to mark, possible 'lasts' along the journey.
Yet the extraordinary current state of financial markets gives pause. Policy makers and advisors casually discuss negative rates and their implications, even as Australian and US equity markets hit new highs. In a sense, it feels a more psychologically testing time to be closer to my higher target allocation for equities than any time before.
The diversification in the portfolio can be thought of as a series of small hedges against different potential futures playing out. By far, the largest probability (or potential future) at 75 per cent, is that the historical dominance of equity as a generator of real returns continues to function.
The remainder of the portfolio can be seen in some ways as a offsetting hedge against large equity market falls, or some other disturbance in financial markets with negative implications for equity. At base, however, I remain comfortable with the 'balance of probabilities' implied in the target asset allocation.
This month saw a new (v)blogger Mx Lauren join the Australian FI scene, as well as the suggestion by Money Magazine of a new 'simplified' retirement rule of thumb to consider.
A further piece of fascinating reading was this piece by Ben Carlson in Fortune Magazine, explaining the key role of earnings growth in recent US market return. It posits that the recent strong performance of US equities is attributable to fundamental earnings growth, rather than simply an unjustified expansion in the price investors are willing to pay for that growth.
This - in addition to Shakespeare's pre-modern enjoinment to diversify - is potentially another reason to not confine considerations to one market, and one place, as December distributions slowly drift into sight.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Crypto.com MCO Visa card: 10% cashback on groceries + 1-5% on other purchases + $50 bonus

Crypto.com is now finally shipping their MCO Visa cards in UK & EU! I have received my card last week and immediately got 10% cashback when trying it at Lidl: https://imgur.com/a/ITB39JX People have been reporting arrival of their cards in UK and all over Europe.
I'm very enthousiastic about Crypto.com myself and all the products they offer. I'll try to explain here as clearly as I can.
I would appreciate it if you'd sign up through my link: https://platinum.crypto.com/sxzbhwuqje or use code sxzbhwuqje in the app. You will also be eligible for the $50 bonus then (see below).

What is Crypto.com?

Crypto.com offers an app with which you can easily buy and sell cryptocurrencies without additional cost. The company exists since 2016 (back then under the name Monaco, hence the MCO abbreviation) and now they have 2 million users.
Next to trading within the app you can also get interest on your cryptocurrencies up to 12% (complete overview here), similar to the likes of Celsius and BlockFi.

The MCO Visa card

Through their app Crypto.com also offers the MCO Visa card. This is a Visa card tied to the MCO cryptocurrency. There are 5 different card tiers and you get:
All cashbacks and bonuses are paid in the MCO cryptocurrency. You can immediately sell the MCO in the app for pounds/euros, which you can use again for purchases with the card if you want.
To get one of the non-free card tiers you need to buy MCO coin and stake them, which means holding on to them for 6 months. After the 6 months you can sell them again at the then current rate. The price of MCO is has been around £4,45 / €5,00 for some time, meaning that you have to lock £223 / €250 for six months to get the Ruby Steel card. You'll earn this back in about 7 months (see below),
These are the lower three card tiers:
Card Tier Midnight Blue Ruby Steel Jade Green/Royal Indigo
Stake (hold) None (free card) 50 MCO (~ £223 / €250) 500 MCO (~ £2230 / €2500)
Bonus after staking None $50 (in MCO) $50 (in MCO)
Cashback % 1% 2% 3%
Monthly Spotify Rebate No Yes Yes
Monthly Netflix Rebate No No Yes
LoungeKey Airport Lounge Access No No Yes
Metal card No Yes Yes

Calculation example payback time (7 months)

Below I've made an example calculation for the payback time of the Ruby Steel card, assuming a spend of £1000 / €1000 monthly with the card and that you use Spotify. After 7 months you will have earned back your initial investment :)
But, additionally you also have the 10% cashback on groceries until the end of June plus the worth of your MCO coins that you locked for 6 months. Even if they would be worth only half of what they are worth today, you'd still have a value of £112 / € 225 (see below about price expectation).

Value
$50 bonus immediately after staking £40 / €46
2% cashback on all purchases with the card (assuming montly spend of £1000 / €1000 during 7 months) £140 / €140
Spotify rebate (£10 / €10 per month) £70 / €70
Total £250 / €256

MCO price

The price of the MCO coin has been around £4,50 / €5 for a while. The cards have just been released for UK and EU. Because especially in EU cashback cards are not common, I expect that lots of people would be interested in getting a cashback card like this one. The good thing about that is that the demand for MCO coin would increase (because people need to lock them for 6 months) and I expect that the price of MCO will rise then (there are only 16 million of them, less than Bitcoins).
No guarantees, this is my personal opinion :) I advise you to think about it yourself.

Notes

submitted by blxyy to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Bitcoin 11 Years - Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far - Tooootally NOT a SCAM !!!!

That's right folks, it's that time again for the annual review of how Bitcoin is going: all of those claims, predictions, promises .... how many have turned out to be true, and how many are completely bogus ???
Please post / link this on Bitcoin (I am banned there for speaking the truth, so I cannot do it) ... because it'a way past time those poor clueless mushrooms were exposed to the truth.
Anyway, without further ado, I give you the Bitcoin's Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far ...
.
Bitcoin Achievements so far:
  1. It has spawned a cesspool of scams (2000+ shit coin scams, plus 100's of other scams, frauds, cons).
  2. Many 1,000's of hacks, thefts, losses.
  3. Illegal Use Cases: illegal drugs, illegal weapons, tax fraud, money laundering, sex trafficking, child pornography, hit men / murder-for-hire, ransomware, blackmail, extortion, and various other kinds of fraud and illicit activity.
  4. Legal Use Cases: Steam Games, Reddit, Expedia, Stripe, Starbucks, 1000's of merchants, cryptocurrency conferences, Ummm ????? The few merchants who "accept Bitcoin" immediately convert it into FIAT after the sale, or require you to sell your coins to BitPay or Coinbase for real money, and will then take that money. Some of the few who actually accept bitcoin haven't seen a customer who needed to pay with bitcoin for the last six months, and their cashiers no longer know how to handle that.
  5. Contributing significantly to Global Warming.
  6. Wastes vasts amounts of electricity on useless, do nothing work.
  7. Exponentially raises electricity prices when big miners move into regions where electricity was cheap.
  8. It’s the first "currency" that is not self-sustainable. It operates at a net loss, and requires continuous outside capital to replace the capital removed by miners to pay their costs. It’s literally a "black hole currency."
  9. It created a new way for people living too far from Vegas to gamble all their life savings away.
  10. Spawned "blockchain technology", a powerful technique that lets incompetent programmers who know almost nothing about databases, finance, programming, or blockchain scam millions out of gullible VC investors, banks, and governments.
  11. Increased China's foreign trade balance by a couple billion dollars per year.
  12. Helped the FBI and other law enforcement agents easily track down hundreds of drug traffickers and drug users.
  13. Wasted thousands if not millions of man-hours of government employees and legislators, in mostly fruitless attempts to understand, legitimize, and regulate the "phenomenon", and to investigate and prosecute its scams.
  14. Rekindled the hopes of anarcho-capitalists and libertarians for a global economic collapse, that would finally bring forth their Mad Max "utopia".
  15. Added another character to Unicode (no, no, not the "poo" 💩 character ... that was my first guess as well 🤣)
  16. Provides an easy way for malware and ransomware criminals to ply their trade and extort hospitals, schools, local councils, businesses, utilities, as well as the general population.
.
Correct Predictions:
  1. 2015-12: "1,000 dollar in 2015", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/ (Technically, this prediction is WRONG because the highest price reached in 2015 was $495.56 according to CMC. Yes, Bitcoin reached $1,000 in 2013 and 2014, but that's NOT what the prediction says).
  2. 2017-12: "10,000 in 2017", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
  3. 2018-04: $10,000 (by April 2018), Mike Novogratz, link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/, link #2: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-21/mike-novogratz-says-bitcoin-will-end-the-year-at-10-000
  4. 2018-12: $10,000 (by 2018), Tim Draper, link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/, link #2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AW5s6QkRRY
  5. Any others ? (Please tell me).
.
Bitcoin Promises / Claims / Price Predictions that turned out to be lies and bullshit:
  1. ANONYMOUS
  2. CENSORSHIP RESISTANT
  3. FRICTIONLESS
  4. TRUSTLESS
  5. UNCENSORABLE
  6. UNTRACEABLE
  7. SAFE
  8. SECURE
  9. YOU CANNOT LOSE
  10. NOT A SCAM
  11. PERMISSIONLESS
  12. GUARANTEED PRIVACY
  13. CANNOT BE SEIZED
  14. CANNOT BE CONFISCATED
  15. Be your own bank
  16. Regulation-proof
  17. NO MIDDLEMEN
  18. DECENTRALIZED
  19. Instantaneous transactions
  20. Fast transactions
  21. Zero / No transaction fees
  22. Low transaction fees
  23. A store of value
  24. A deflationary digital asset
  25. "A deflationary digital asset that no single human being can destroy."
  26. "an asset that is equally as dual use as a car, water, or any other traditional element that has existed."
  27. "Digital gold"
  28. Easy to use
  29. Cannot be stolen
  30. Cannot be hacked
  31. Can be mined by anyone
  32. Can be mined by anyone, even with an old computer or laptop
  33. Cannot be centralized
  34. Will return power back to the people.
  35. Not a Ponzi scam
  36. Not a Pyramid scam
  37. Never pay tax again
  38. Your gains cannot be taxed
  39. A currency
  40. An amazing new class of asset
  41. An asset
  42. A means to economic freedom
  43. A store of value
  44. The best investment the word has ever seen
  45. A great investment
  46. Efficient
  47. Scalable
  48. Stable
  49. Resilient
  50. Reliable
  51. Low energy
  52. Low risk
  53. Redistribute wealth to everybody
  54. No more have's and have not's
  55. No more US and THEM
  56. No more disadvantaged people
  57. No more RICH and POOR
  58. No more poor people
  59. Uses amazing new technology
  60. Uses ingenious new technology
  61. Satishi Nakamoto invented ...
  62. Segwit will solve all of Bitcoin's woes
  63. Lightning Network will solve all of Bitcoin's woes
  64. Limited by scarcity
  65. Can only go up in value
  66. Price cannot crash
  67. Has intrinsic value
  68. Value will always be worth more than cost to mine
  69. Adoption by investors is increasing exponentially
  70. Adoption by investors is increasing
  71. Adoption by merchants is increasing exponentially
  72. Adoption by merchants is increasing
  73. You are secure if you keep your coins on an exchange
  74. You are secure if you keep your coins in a hardware wallet
  75. You are secure if you keep your coins in an air-gapped Linux PC
  76. Will change the world
  77. "the next phase in human evolution"
  78. "Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet"
  79. Blockchain can solve previously unsolvable problems.
  80. "The only regulation we need is the blockchain"
  81. "Bank the unbanked"
  82. "To abolish financial slavery and the state's toxic monopoly on money."
  83. "To have better tools in the fight against the state violence and taxation."
  84. "To stamp information on a blockchain forever so we can bypass state censorship, copyrights, patents(informational monopolies) etc."
  85. Will destroy / overthrow FIAT
  86. Will destroy / overthrow the world's governments
  87. Will destroy / overthrow the banking system
  88. Will destroy / overthrow the world economies
  89. Will free people from tyranny
  90. Will give people financial freedom
  91. Will bring world peace
  92. Never going below $19K again
  93. Never going below $18K again
  94. Never going below $17K again
  95. Never going below $16K again
  96. Never going below $15K again
  97. Never going below $14K again
  98. Never going below $13K again
  99. Never going below $12K again
  100. Never going below $11K again
  101. Never going below $10K again
  102. Never going below $9K again
  103. Never going below $8K again
  104. Never going below $7K again
  105. Never going below $6K again
  106. Never going below $5K again
  107. Never going below $4K again
  108. Is NOT a Scam
  109. Hashing Power secures the Bitcoin network
  110. Untraceable, private transactions
  111. Guaranteed privacy
  112. Not created out of thin air
  113. Not created out of thin air by unregulated, unbacked entities
  114. Totally NOT a scam
  115. Is not used primarily by crimonals, drug dealers, or money launderers.
  116. 100% secure
  117. 2010 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  118. 2011 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  119. 2012 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  120. 2013 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  121. 2014 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  122. 2015 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  123. 2016 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  124. 2017 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  125. 2018 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  126. 2019 will be the "Year of Crypto"
  127. 2010: MASS ADOPTION any day now"
  128. 2011: MASS ADOPTION aany day now"
  129. 2012: MASS ADOPTION aaany day now"
  130. 2013: MASS ADOPTION aaaany day now"
  131. 2014: MASS ADOPTION aaaaany day now"
  132. 2015: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaany day now"
  133. 2016: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaany day now"
  134. 2017: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaany day now"
  135. 2018: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaaany day now"
  136. 2019: MASS ADOPTION aaaaaaaaany day now"
  137. "Financial Freedom, bro."
  138. no single entity, government or individual, can alter or reverse its transactions
  139. insurance against the tyranny of state
  140. Bitcoin has come to destroy all governments and bring about the libertarian utopia of my dreams.
  141. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 2+ years.
  142. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 5+ years.
  143. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 7+ years.
  144. The major issues in Bicoin's network will be fixed. This is still early days, Bitcoin has only been around for 9+ years.
  145. 1,000's of predictions of skyrocketing and/or never falling prices
  146. Escape the petty rivalries of warring powers and nation states by scattering control among the many. The Bitcoin Cash debacle proves that even the most cryptographically secure plans of mice and men often go awry. Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/9zfhb6/like_theres_only_one_flaw_with_buttcoin_crash/ea8s11m
  147. People will NEVER be able to welch out of bets or deals again. Nov-2018, Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/9zvpl2/the_guy_who_made_the_1000_bet_that_btc_wouldnt/
  148. "Everything will be better, faster, and cheaper.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  149. "Everything will be more connected.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  150. "Everything will be more trustworthy.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  151. "Everything will be more secure.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  152. "Everything that exists is no-longer going to exist in the way that it does today.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  153. "Everything in this world is about to get better.", Brock Pierce, EOS.io shill video.
  154. You are a slave to the bankers
  155. The bankers print money and then you pay for it
  156. Bitcoin is The Peoples Money
  157. Bitcoin will set you free
  158. Bitcoin will set you free from the slavery of the banks and the government Ref: https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/cd2q94/bitcoin_shall_set_you_free/
  159. ~~Bitcoin is "striking fear into the hearts of bankers, precisely because Bitcoin eliminates the need for banks. ~~, Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  160. "When transactions are verified on a Blockchain, banks become obsolete.", Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  161. SnapshillBot quotes from delusional morons:
  162. "A bitcoin miner in every device and in every hand."
  163. "All the indicators are pointing to a huge year and bigger than anything we have seen before."
  164. "Bitcoin is communism and democracy working hand in hand."
  165. "Bitcoin is freedom, and we will soon be free."
  166. "Bitcoin isn't calculated risk, you're right. It's downright and painfully obvious that it will consume global finance."
  167. "Bitcoin most disruptive technology of last 500 years"
  168. "Bitcoin: So easy, your grandma can use it!"
  169. "Creating a 4th Branch of Government - Bitcoin"
  170. "Future generations will cry laughing reading all the negativity and insanity vomited by these permabears."
  171. "Future us will thank us."
  172. "Give Bitcoin two years"
  173. "HODLING is more like being a dutiful guardian of the most powerful economic force this planet has ever seen and getting to have a say about how that force is unleashed."
  174. "Cut out the middleman"
  175. "full control of your own assets"
  176. "reduction in wealth gap"
  177. "no inflation"
  178. "cannot print money out of thin air"
  179. "Why that matters? Because blockchain not only cheaper for them, it'll be cheaper for you and everyone as well."
  180. "If you are in this to get rich in Fiat then no. But if you are in this to protect your wealth once the current monetary system collapse then you are protected and you'll be the new rich."
  181. "Theres the 1% and then theres the 99%. You want to be with the rest thats fine. Being different and brave is far more rewarding. No matter your background or education."
  182. "NO COINERS will believe anything they are fed by fake news and paid media."
  183. "I know that feeling (like people looking at you as in seeing a celebrity and then asking things they don't believe until their impressed)."
  184. "I literally walk round everyday looking at other people wondering why they even bother to live if they don't have Bitcoin in their lives."
  185. "I think bitcoin may very well be the best form of money we’ve ever seen in the history of civilization."
  186. "I think Bitcoin will do for mankind what the sun did for life on earth."
  187. "I think the constant scams and illegal activities only show the viability of bitcoin."
  188. "I think we're sitting on the verge of exponential interest in the currency."
  189. "I'm not using hyperbole when I say Satoshi found the elusive key to World Peace."
  190. "If Jesus ever comes back you know he's gonna be using Bitcoin"
  191. "If this idea was implemented with The Blockchain™, it would be completely flawless! Flawless I tell you!"
  192. "If you're the minimum wage guy type, now is a great time to skip food and go full ramadan in order to buy bitcoin instead."
  193. "In a world slipping more and more into chaos and uncertainty, Bitcoin seems to me like the last solid rock defeating all the attacks."
  194. "In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any filthy statist's blessing, but because I am enlightened by own intelligence."
  195. "Is Bitcoin at this point, with all the potential that opens up, the most undervalued asset ever?"
  196. "It won't be long until bitcoin is an everyday household term."
  197. "It's the USD that is volatile. Bitcoin is the real neutral currency."
  198. "Just like the early Internet!"
  199. "Just like the Trojan Horse of old, Bitcoin will reveal its full power and nature"
  200. "Ladies if your man doesnt have some bitcoin then he cant handle anything and has no danger sex appeal. He isnt edgy"
  201. "let me be the first to say if you dont have bitcoin you are a pussy and cant really purchase anything worldwide. You have no global reach"
  202. "My conclusion is that I see this a a very good thing for bitcoin and for users"
  203. "No one would do such a thing; it'd be against their self interests."
  204. "Ooh lala, good job on bashing Bitcoin. How to disrespect a great innovation."
  205. "Realistically I think Bitcoin will replace the dollar in the next 10-15 years."
  206. "Seperation of money and state -> states become obsolete -> world peace."
  207. "Some striking similarities between Bitcoin and God"
  208. "THANK YOU. Better for this child to be strangled in its crib as a true weapon for crypto-anarchists than for it to be wielded by toxic individuals who distort the technology and surrender it to government and corporate powers."
  209. "The Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet and is the next phase in human evolution. To avoid its significance is complete ignorance."
  210. "The bull run should begin any day now."
  211. "The free market doesn't permit fraud and theft."
  212. "The free market will clear away the bad actors."
  213. "The only regulation we need is the blockchain."
  214. "We are not your slaves! We are free bodies who will swallow you and puke you out in disgust. Welcome to liberty land or as that genius called it: Bitcoin."
  215. "We do not need the bankers for Satoshi is our saviour!"
  216. "We have never seen something so perfect"
  217. "We must bring freedom and crypto to the masses, to the common man who does not know how to fight for himself."
  218. "We verified that against the blockchain."
  219. "we will see a Rennaisnce over the next few decades, all thanks to Bitcoin."
  220. "Well, since 2006, there has been a infinite% increase in price, so..."
  221. "What doesn't kill cryptocurrency makes it stronger."
  222. "When Bitcoin awake in normally people (real people) ... you will have this result : No War. No Tax. No QE. No Bank."
  223. "When I see news that the price of bitcoin has tanked (and thus the market, more or less) I actually, for-real, have the gut reaction "oh that’s cool, I’ll be buying cheap this week". I never knew I could be so rational."
  224. "Where is your sense of adventure? Bitcoin is the future. Set aside your fears and leave easier at the doorstep."
  225. "Yes Bitcoin will cause the greatest redistribution of wealth this planet has ever seen. FACT from the future."
  226. "You are the true Bitcoin pioneers and with your help we have imprinted Bitcoin in the Canadian conscience."
  227. "You ever try LSD? Perhaps it would help you break free from the box of state-formed thinking you have limited yourself..."
  228. "Your phone or refrigerator might be on the blockchain one day."
  229. The banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, so why can't crypto do the same ???
  230. Central Banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, without any consequences or accounting, so why can't crypto do the same ???
  231. It's impossible to hide illegal, unsavory material on the blockchain
  232. It's impossible to hide child pornography on the blockchain
  233. Fungible
  234. All Bitccoins are the same, 100% identical, one Bitcoin cannot be distinguished from any other Bitcoin.
  235. The price of Bitcoin can only go up.
  236. "Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
  237. Scarcity
  238. The price of Bitcoin can only go up because of scarcity / 21 million coin limit. (Bitcoin is open source, anyone can create thir own copy, and there are more than 2,000+ Bitcoin copies / clones out there already).
  239. immune to government regulation
  240. "a world-changing technology"
  241. "a long-term store of value, like gold or silver"
  242. "To Complex to Be Audited."
  243. "Old Auditing rules do not apply to Blockchain."
  244. "Old Auditing rules do not apply to Cryptocurrency."
  245. "Why Bitcoin has Value: SCARCITY.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  246. "Bitcoin is the first scarce digital object the world has ever seen, it is scarce like silver & gold, and can be sent over the internet, radio, satellite etc.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  247. "Surely this digital scarcity has value.", PlanB, Coin Shill, 22-Mar-2019, https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25
  248. Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
  249. "May 2018 will be the last time we ever see $bitcoin under $10,000", Charlie Shrem, bitcoin advocate and convicted felon, 11:31 AM 3-May-2018, https://twitter.com/CharlieShrem/status/992109375555858433
  250. "Last dip ever.", AngeloBTC, 14 Oct 2018, https://mobile.twitter.com/AngeloBTC/status/1051710824388030464/photo/1
  251. "Bitcoin May Have Just Experienced its Final Shakeout Before a Big Rally", Joseph Young, coin shill, October 15, 2018 22:30 CET, https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-may-have-just-experienced-its-final-shakeout-before-a-big-rally/
  252. Bitcoin would be a buy if the price fell under $5,000., Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, 29-Jun-2018, https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-a-buy-below-5000-says-allianz-chief-economic-adviso
  253. 2013-11-27: ""What is a Citadel?" you might wonder. Well, by the time Bitcoin became worth 1,000 dollar [27-Nov-2013], services began to emerge for the "Bitcoin rich" to protect themselves as well as their wealth. It started with expensive safes, then began to include bodyguards, and today, "earlies" (our term for early adapters), as well as those rich whose wealth survived the "transition" live in isolated gated cities called Citadels, where most work is automated. Most such Citadels are born out of the fortification used to protect places where Bitcoin mining machines are located. The company known as ASICminer to you is known to me as a city where Mr. Friedman rules as a king.", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
  254. 2018-02: Bitcoin price to hit $27,000 by February 2018, Trace Mayer, host of the Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast, and self-proclaimed entrepreneur, investor, journalist, monetary scientist and ardent defender, Link #1: https://mobile.twitter.com/TraceMayestatus/917260836070154240/photo/1, Link #2: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  255. 2018-06: "Bitcoin will surpass $15,000 in June [2018]." John McAfee, May 25, 2018, https://bitcoinist.com/john-mcafee-says-bitcoin-will-surpass-15000-in-june/
  256. 2018-07: Bitcoin will be $28,000 by mid-2018, Ronnie Moas, Wall Street analyst and founder of Standpoint Research, http://helpfordream.com/2018/12/23/5-bitcoin-price-predictions-gone-wrong/.
  257. 2018-12: Bitcoin to reach a price of between 40,000 and 110,000 US dollars by the end of the 2017 bull run ... sometime before 2019, Masterluc, 26-May-2017, an anonymous "legendary" Bitcoin trader, Link #1: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/, Link #2: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  258. 2018-12: "There is no reason why we couldn’t see Bitcoin pushing $50,000 by December [2018]", Thomas Glucksmann, head of APAC business at Gatecoin, Link #1: https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  259. 2018-12: Listen up you giggling cunts... who wants some?...you? you want some?...huh? Do ya? Here's the deal you fuckin Nerds - Butts are gonna be at 30 grand or more by next Christmas [2018] - If they aren't I will publicly administer an electronic dick sucking to every shill on this site and disappear forever - Until then, no more bans or shadow bans - Do we have a deal? If Butts are over 50 grand me and Lammy get to be mods. Deal? Your ole pal - "Skully" u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018 https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/
  260. 2018-12: 1 bitcoin = 1 Lambo. Remind me on Christmas eve [2018] u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018, https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/dtn2pna
  261. 2018-12: Been in BTC since 2014 and experienced many "deaths" of BTC... this too shall pass... $10k end of the year. [2018] u/Exxe2502, 30-Jun-2018 https://reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/8uur27/_/e1ioi5b/?context=1
  262. 2018-12: "Yale Alumni prediction - 30 Grand by Christmas [2018] - and you my friend... you will be the one eating Mcafee's dick in 2020. :) -:", u/SirNakamoto, 15-Jun-2018, https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/8r0tyh/fdic_agrees_to_cover_bitcoin_losses_in_event_of/e0nzxq7
  263. 2018-12: "Impossible For Bitcoin Not to Hit $10,000 by This Year (2018)", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 22-Sep-2018, https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/09/22/billionaire-novogratz-impossible-for-bitcoin-not-to-hit-10000-by-this-yea
  264. 2018-12: "[Bitcoin] between $13,800 and $14,800 [by end of 2018]", Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 13-Dec-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/wall-streets-bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-we-are-tired-of-people-asking-us-about-target-prices.html
  265. 2018-12: "Bitcoin is going to be $15k-$20k by the end of the year (2018)", Didi Taihuttu, 1-Nov-2018, https://www.wsj.com/video/series/moving-upstream/the-bitcoin-gamble/85E3A4A7-C777-4827-9A3F-B387F2AB7654
  266. 2018-12: 2018 bitcoin price prediction reduced to $15,000 [was $25,000], Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 16-Nov-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/wall-streets-crypto-bull-tom-lee-slashes-year-end-forecast-by-10000.html
  267. 2018-12: "I want to be clear, bitcoin is going to $25,000 by year end (2018)", Fundstrat's Tom Lee, 5-Jul-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/07/05/tom-lee-i-want-to-be-clear-bitcoin-is-going-to-25000-by-year-end.html
  268. 2018-12: "Bitcoin could be at $40,000 by the end of 2018, it really easily could", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 21-Sep-2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lC1anDg2KU
  269. 2018-12: "Bitcoin will be priced around $50,000 by the end of the year (2018)", Bitcoin bull Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of BitMEX, 29-Jun-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/bitcoin-will-reach-50000-in-2018-says-founder-of-bitcoin-exchange.html
  270. 2018-12: "Bitcoin could definitely see $50,000 in 2018", Jeet Singh, cryptocurrency portfolio manager, speaking in January 2018 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, https://www.dcforecasts.com/new-prediction-says-bitcoin-hit-50000-2018/
  271. 2018-12: "Bitcoin will hit $100,000 this year (2018)", Kay Van-Petersen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, 17-Jan-2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/16/bitcoin-headed-to-100000-in-2018-analyst-who-forecast-2017-price-move.html
  272. 2018-12: "Bitcoin price to surpass the $100,000 mark by the end of 2018", Tone Vays, 21-Sep-2017, https://www.ccn.com/prominent-bitcoin-trader-price-is-heading-towards-100000-in-2018/
  273. 2018-12: "Bitcoin’s Price Will Surpass the $100,000 Mark by the End of 2018", Anonymous ("author" obviously too embarrassed to put his name to such bullshit "articles"), Oct-2018, https://investingpr.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-for-2018/
  274. 2018-12: "Our [2018] year-end bitcoin target is $7700.", James Stefurak, Founder at Monarch Research. See article: "Experts Forecast Bitcoin will rise by 2019", REF: https://hackernoon.com/experts-forecast-bitcoin-will-rise-by-2019-f4af8807036b?gi=dfea3c30d6d8
  275. 2018-12: "... we’ll see the price rally reaching its all-time of high of around $20K before the end of 2018", Khaled Khorshid, Co-Founder at Treon ICO. See article: "Experts Forecast Bitcoin will rise by 2019", REF: https://hackernoon.com/experts-forecast-bitcoin-will-rise-by-2019-f4af8807036b?gi=dfea3c30d6d8
  276. 2018-12: Bitcoin will end 2018 at the price point of $50,000, Ran Neuner, host of CNBC’s show Cryptotrader and the 28th most influential Blockchain insider according to Richtopia,https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
  277. Plus a whole host of wrong 2019 predictions (could not be included here because of post character limit issues), so please see my earlier post from 4 days ago: Ummm, remember those "Expert" Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2019 ..... ohhhhh dear ....., https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/eiqhq3/ummm_remember_those_expert_bitcoin_price/
.
But it's NOT all bad news, some claims and promises are yet to be determined:
  1. Never going below $3K again
  2. Never going below $2K again
  3. Never going below $1K again
  4. Any others ? Please let me know.
submitted by Crypto_To_The_Core to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

Crypto.com MCO Visa Card: 10% cashback on groceries, 1-5% on other purchases + $50 bonus

Crypto.com is now finally shipping their MCO Visa cards in UK & EU (in US available for a while already)! I have received my card this week and immediately got 10% cashback when trying it at Lidl: https://imgur.com/a/ITB39JX
I'm very enthousiastic about Crypto.com myself and all the products they offer. I'll try to explain here as clearly as I can.
I would appreciate it if you'd sign up through my link: https://platinum.crypto.com/sxzbhwuqje or use code sxzbhwuqje in the app. You will also be eligible for the $50 bonus then (see below).

What is Crypto.com?

Crypto.com offers an app with which you can easily buy and sell cryptocurrencies without additional cost. The company exists since 2016 (back then under the name Monaco, hence the MCO abbreviation) and now they have 2 million users.
Next to trading within the app you can also get interest on your cryptocurrencies up to 12% (complete overview here), similar to the likes of Celsius and BlockFi.

The MCO Visa card

Through their app Crypto.com also offers the MCO Visa card. This is a Visa card tied to the MCO cryptocurrency. There are 5 different card tiers and you get:
All cashbacks and bonuses are paid in the MCO cryptocurrency. You can immediately sell the MCO in the app for pounds/euros, which you can use again for purchases with the card if you want.
To get one of the non-free card tiers you need to buy MCO coin and stake them, which means holding on to them for 6 months. After the 6 months you can sell them again at the then current rate. The price of MCO is currently around £4,45 / €5,00, meaning that you have to lock £223 / €250 for six months to get the Ruby Steel card. You'll earn this back in about 7 months (see below),
These are the lower three card tiers:
Card Tier Midnight Blue Ruby Steel Jade Green/Royal Indigo
Stake (hold) None (free card) 50 MCO (~ £223 / €250) 500 MCO (~ £2230 / €2500)
Bonus after staking None $50 (in MCO) $50 (in MCO)
Cashback % 1% 2% 3%
Monthly Spotify Rebate No Yes Yes
Monthly Netflix Rebate No No Yes
LoungeKey Airport Lounge Access No No Yes
Metal card No Yes Yes

Calculation example payback time (7 months)

Below I've made an example calculation for the payback time of the Ruby Steel card, assuming a spend of £1000 / €1000 monthly with the card and that you use Spotify. After 7 months you will have earned back your initial investment :)
But, additionally you also have the 10% cashback on groceries until the end of June plus the worth of your MCO coins that you locked for 6 months. Even if they would be worth only half of what they are worth today, you'd still have a value of £112 / € 225 (see below about price expectation).

Value
$50 bonus immediately after staking £40 / €46
2% cashback on all purchases with the card (assuming montly spend of £1000 / €1000 during 7 months) £140 / €140
Spotify rebate (£10 / €10 per month) £70 / €70
Total £250 / €256

MCO price

The price of the MCO coin has been around £4,50 / €5 for a while. The cards have just been released for UK and EU. Because especially in EU cashback cards are not common, I expect that lots of people would be interested in getting a cashback card like this one. The good thing about that is that the demand for MCO coin would increase (because people need to lock them for 6 months) and I expect that the price of MCO will rise then (there are only 16 million of them, less than Bitcoins).
No guarantees, this is my personal opinion :) I advise you to think about it yourself.

Notes

submitted by blxyy to beercoins [link] [comments]

Casting Shadows Before | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - October 2019

And coming events cast their shadows before.
Thomas Campbell, Loichiel’s Warning (1802)
This is my thirty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals.
Portfolio goals
My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19 per cent, or a nominal return of 7.19 per cent, and are expressed in 2018 dollars.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $773 028 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $44 094 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $80 383 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $108 964 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $139 698 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $27 138 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $259 380 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 860 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $13 847 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 412 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $98 755 Secured physical gold – $15 979 Ratesetter* (P2P lending) – $17 791 Bitcoin – $147 130 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 931 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 240 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 410 Total value: $1 760 040 (+$30 378)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.0% (3.0% under) Global shares – 22.6% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.1% Total international shares – 28.1% (1.9% under) Total shares – 70.1% (4.9% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 4.8% International bonds – 9.9% Total bonds – 14.7% (0.3% under) Gold – 6.5% Bitcoin – 8.4% Gold and alternatives – 14.9% (4.9% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
This month the portfolio grew by just over $30 000 in total, building on the previous month of growth.
[Chart]
The equity component of the portfolio has grown, including through new contributions and another part of the June distributions being 'averaged into' equity markets.
The only other major changes in the monthly value of the portfolio have been the result of gains in the value of equity holdings and a sharp upward movement in the price of Bitcoin.
[Chart]
This month marks the notional passing of one of the additional FI benchmarks set at the beginning of the year - 'Credit card FI'. This benchmark is estimated on the basis of reaching a portfolio value where the annual assumed real return of 4.19 per cent could in theory fully meet average annual credit card expenses of $73 000.
This benchmark is notionally met in that sense, and it is also close to being met on a far more practical and tangible basis also. The actual gap between a trailing average of distributions paid and card expenses has now fallen to less than $300 per month.
[Chart]
Even so, it is important to note that this narrow gap could stabilise or modestly rise once forthcoming December distributions form part of the average, replacing a higher placeholder assumption based on June's figures.
Quarterly distributions from Betashare's A200 ETF and Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS) were paid this month. These distributions, in addition to another staggered reinvestment of June distributions were invested in the market.
They have been mostly placed into VAS, to obtain the benefit of accessing a slightly wider range of holdings at a comparable fee, as well as to reduce any (admittedly small) risk and volatility in future returns and payout levels between A200 and VAS.
To maintain the target balance for international (40 per cent) and domestic equities (40 per cent), a smaller additional investment was also made into Vanguard's International shares ETF (VGS).
Sighting harbours and early arrivals - revising the FI target date
A focus of thought in the two months ahead will be the expected timing of reaching my FI Objective #2.
This goal is current set to July 2023. In setting this original target timeframe I used approximate and conservative estimates, based on previous average total portfolio increases over the past five years.
This method effectively ignored extra contributions arising from any above average portfolio distributions, or any return impacts, given the relatively short time until both targets. As such, it represented a clear simplification of reality. Achievement of the target - I reasoned at the time - would inevitably be impacted by market fluctuations and this meant constructing spuriously exact yearly forecasts of the impacts of average returns would not be worthwhile.
What has become clear since meeting Objective #1 more than 18 months earlier than expected is that more rapid progress was also being made towards Objective #2. To understand and explore this progress further I have applied a few estimation techniques to start understanding possible revised trajectories.
These estimate approaches included:
The results of the different estimation approaches being applied were broadly consistent, with projections of Objective #2 being reached at least two years ahead of schedule. A further interesting fact was that average assumed investment returns alone would be sufficient to carry the portfolio to the original target level by mid-2023. Indeed, even if the portfolio suffered a one-off 33 per cent fall in equity values tomorrow - as is quite possible - modelling suggested the target would still be likely to be met early.
With two months to go until a full portfolio review, this indicates that it may be useful to reset this target to an estimate that more closely aligns with progress to date, whilst still retaining a respectful regard for the critical role that market variations can have in this phase of the journey.
Casting the shadow before - a better approach for estimating distributions?
At this time of year December distributions begin to cast their shadow forward, as the previous July distributions recede.
Seeking to estimate the approximate level of future distributions has been an ongoing interest, and has been looked at previously in both the Set and Drift and Wind in the Sails posts. The level of distributions is a solid and important marker of how far the journey has progressed.
This month I found time to fully develop an expanded data set to allow a better estimate of likely distributions. From the website of the relevant Vanguard retail funds, as well as the sites for the ETFs VAS, VGS and A200 I was able to download the available histories of distributions.
These stretched back a decade for some funds, and five years for VAS and VGS, but substantially shorter for A200. This enables the estimation of average payouts (in cents per unit) to be reached. In turn, this allows an estimate to be made of the level and components of the December distributions, using average values. This is set out below.
[Chart]
There are significant boundaries of uncertainty around this estimate, and some simplifications. For example, it excludes Ratesetter and smaller individual shareholdings (which represent about 10 per cent of the holdings). It also assumes for simplicity equal ETF payments through the year.
With these caveats and using this approach, the total December distributions are estimated to be around $19 500, out of an annual forecast distributions of $49 800.
Progress
Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 110.1% 150.0% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 88.9% 121.1% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 101.1% 137.7% Total expenses - $89 000 pa 82.9% 112.9%
Summary
Coming events do cast their shadows before them. Even an initial review of progress towards my remaining financial objective has left me with a sense of time foreshortening, and the shadow reaching out towards the present. At some point this shadow will start inevitably and undeniably reaching into and touching my daily life.
At the same time as this sense grows, markets feel delicately poised, with risks of bubbles, and unusual events such as required US Federal Reserve support for the inter-bank market, and a rare failure of a recent tender of short term Australian Treasury notes to reach its target issuance. Despite these types of events and historically low bond rates globally surveyed investor equity expectations remain at elevated levels.
It often pays dividends at times such as this to look to the past. This is an opportunity provided by listening to Yale University's Robert Shiller in this recent podcast as well as by reading his new work Narrative Economics focused around the historical and continuing role of stories in markets and finance.
Stories - such as a 'clear' link between a countries' economic growth and share market performance - can often be plausible, commonly held, and incorrect. Another informative podcast was an interview with the Head of Product Strategy for Vanguard Australia by Equity Mates. Further interesting insights into the development of modern portfolio theory and efficient markets theory can be accessed in these Youtube videos with interviews of Markowitz and Eugene Fama. The latter makes the point that the growth in indexing is likely to lead to active managers facing higher competition from more skilled investors, as the less skilled depart, making outperformance tougher rather than easier.
This month I was pleased to be mentioned in this short but practical piece on Australian FI seekers, alongside Aussie HIFIRE and Aussie Firebug. For a striking visual tool around planning for FI and safe withdrawal rates, this US-based calculator also occupied some of my time. It gives a unique and simple demonstration of the different probabilities and tradeoffs that can be embedded in reaching FI. Ordinary Dollar here in Australia has some similar calculators. Without seeing coming events, they represent a useful way to look further over the horizon.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Analysis: reduction to 2 ETH per block brings Ethereum's long-term inflation rate lower than bitcoin

5 year inflation calculation with the Constantinople issuance reduction to 2 ETH / block
The Constantinople hard fork is scheduled to happen sometime before Devcon 4. Let's say it happens just before, on October 30th. There will then be roughly 102,500,000 ETH in existence at the current mining rate. After that the issuance will be 2 ETH per 5760 blocks mined per day = 2 * 5760 * 365 = 4,204,800 ETH per year. Additionally there will be 613,901 ETH per year created in uncle rewards.
Currently I believe the most realistic date for the switch to PoS would be sometime in 2020. For this calculation I am using October 2020 as a reasonable estimate. For ETH issuance after PoS, currently the expected value is 500k of ETH per year.
So in total over the next 5 years that would make for average ETH inflation of 2.084% per year.
Now compare that to bitcoin, with supply increasing from 17,348,950 on October 30th 2018 to 19,504,475 on October 30th 2023 (estimated block number 802429) for an average BTC inflation of 2.370% per year over the next 5 years. (This includes the 2020 halvening.)
Conclusion: assuming PoS doesn't fail completely, ether inflation rate will be around 10% lower than bitcoin over the next 5 years.
submitted by eesahe to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Clearing up some misconceptions (including my own) [WARNING: LONG, MATH]

I've been reviewing NAV's code for the past couple months in my spare time and have seen a few things pass for granted which I had assumed were edicts from the NAV team, but as it turns out, they were not. I'll just cover them in sections below. This is going to get long, and hopefully you like math. I'm sorry, in advance.

Coins do not gain weight with age

tldr; section title
This is the big one, and the reason I wanted to review NAV's code in the first place. I had been treating this unofficial medium article like it was the bible, and it mentions that coins are weighted with age and size. No other documentation I could find indicated any differently (honestly, there's not really other documentation, in the first place) and so, having not finished looking into the code, I presumed that was simply true.
It is not, however. I'm not even sure where this idea came from, besides that article, because no NAV team announcements I've seen have said this, but maybe I'm just not looking back far enough.

So how DOES it work?

tldr; values are hashed together and compared against a target. That target is adjusted based only on how many NAV are staking
For those who haven't looked into how NAV picks the next group of staking coins (like I hadn't), the way it works is that a bunch of publicly available values (such as the time of the block you want to make, the time and hash of the transaction that represents your coinstake, and a few others) are hashed twice through SHA256 to create a random number. The actual values input are less important, what is important for NAV's purposes is that they are available to everyone, reasonably unique, and can be verified by other nodes on the blockchain. The output is, mathematically speaking, reproducible, but also completely random.
This value is then checked against a target value that changes based on how fast the network is making blocks. If the network is making blocks around once every three seconds? The target value gets harder (smaller). If the network is making blocks around once every minute? The target value gets easier (larger). The target value just gets adjusted until the network is sitting comfortably at 30 second blocks. So far this is the same way Bitcoin keeps their block time consistent.
However, PoS currencies then usually make an adjustment to that target value to increase your chances to win. In NAV's case, they multiply the target value by the number of coins you are staking. This means that a group of 1000 coins is 1000 times more likely to stake than a group of 1 coin.
To use more accessible numbers, since the values NAV is using are huge, this would be like saying the base odds are that you have to roll a 2 or below on a 100-sided die to win the coinstake. For one roll, you have a 2% chance. For two rolls, you have a 3.95% chance, for three rolls you have a 5.88% chance, for ten you have a 18.29% chance. For n rolls, a 1 - (98^n)/(100^n) chance. To simplify this somewhat, and encourage larger groups, NAV simply says that if you have 10 coins, your chances are 10 * 2%, or 20%. It's a bit more, but it's close.
It's worth noting that, using this system, if you have 50 coins, you have a 100% chance to win every roll, whereas pure single-roll odds only give you a 63.58% chance. The reason this isn't really a problem is that, in this example, there would only be 50 coins in existence, and you probably don't even have access to half of them. Additionally, if you are winning too quickly, NAV will start handing you a 200 sided die, then a 400 sided die, until you are only winning one in 30 -- and this is assuming you're the only one playing. With a table of people, you will get a larger die until only one of you is winning one roll in 30.

Majority Attacks

tldr; if coins gained weight with age it might be an actual security concern. This way is not
The problem with Proof of Stake Age (PoSA) is that, if implemented poorly, it can create opportunities for very cheap attacks. You may have heard of a 51% attack (or majority attack) before. This is where any single entity in the Bitcoin network gains more than 50% of the hashing power. At 51% the chances of them mounting a successful network control attack are now greater than half, which presents a potential danger to the network.

In PoW

tldr; you need lots of fancy computers that you get to keep after
You need a lot of hashing power, which means a lot of computers, which means a lot of financial capital. Or, you need to combine with another organization or pool to combine your hashing power. This was actually a concern once in Bitcoin, but fortunately was resolved to no ill-effect, and ghash.io agreed to cut down their processing. In a PoW system, however, after you have executed your attack, you still have all of your computers, and can use them for something else. The financial capital you have invested is kept, and you never had to invest a single penny into the coin.

In PoS

tldr; you need lots of coins that you probably spent a lot of money on, which are probably worth very little after
In PoS currencies, a 51% attack is still possible, but in this case you would need to have more than half of the staking coins. As of a few days ago, the network weight was hovering around ~18-22 million NAV, so for NAV, you would need ~10-12 million coins to have the requisite 51% of coins. The base assumption for a PoS currency, however, is that, once you have that many coins, you're pretty invested in the network, and it is directly detrimental to you to attempt to attack it. When you execute your attack, you will likely greatly damage trust in the coin, and lose a large portion of your investment. At least, this is the theory.

In PoSA

tldr; you need a little bit of money and a lot of time
You just need to wait. The most simplistic form of PoSA is in the form: adjusted_target = coins * time * base_target. If left uncapped, the time adjustment can allow a single coin stake to outweigh the entire network. Even with a cap of three months (for a total of 7776000 age-weight), you could use a mere 797 individual 0.01 NAV stakes (7.97 NAV total) to outweigh the combined base weight of all 62 million NAV in existence. You want good actors to have the most weight on the network, but in a PoSA currency, good actors are constantly losing their weight when their time resets, whereas bad actors can get more weight for doing nothing.

In PoST

tldr; you need a little bit of money and to somehow create a bunch of coins with the same hashing window
There are some currencies, such as VeriCoin, which have attempted to address this in novel ways, using what they call Proof of Stake Time. They create an ideal window during which your coins gain weight, but after which they return to base levels. This should theoretically encourage people to keep a server running, so they can always catch that window when it happens, which is partially randomized (to prevent someone from simply making a bunch of 0.01 coinstakes at the same time and just waiting for the window). I'm not sure how battle-tested this is, and I can think of a few potential vectors for attack that might exist, depending on implementation, but it does present an interesting and promising approach to the problem of how to encourage everyone on the network to participate, instead of just large stake holders with good odds.

So how likely is it for me to actually get a stake with ___ NAV

tldr; at current network weights it's likely that 1000 NAV will stake around once a week, and 1 NAV will stake once every 17 years.
Since NAV is neither PoSA nor PoST (which I would stress isn't a bad thing, because pure PoS is comparatively simple and has known -- and addressed -- vectors of attack. It's also not necessarily a good thing; it's mostly just a thing), you're basically just as likely to stake today as you are tomorrow. Theoretically, every second should present a new opportunity to win a stake, but in practice this ends up not quite working out because there are other people on the network. Every time you accept a new block, you cut off all of the seconds before it forever. In practice, it's probably easiest to just look at the total weight of the network, and your weight, and extrapolate from there. We'll take for granted that NAV will have 30 second block times for this calculation. If you've got Python you can follow along:
>>> # 2 blocks/min * 60 min/hr * 24 hday * 365 days/year ... TOTAL_STAKES_IN_YEAR = 1051200 >>> # 60 sec/min * 60 min/hr * 24 hday * 365 day/yr ... SECONDS_IN_YEAR = 31536000 >>> # the number of coins you are staking ... stake = 1.0 >>> # The total number of coins on the network ... network_weight = 18701284.96584108 >>> my_stakes_per_year = (stake / network_weight) * TOTAL_STAKES_IN_YEAR 0.05621004128433283 >>> seconds_between_stakes = SECONDS_IN_YEAR / my_stakes_per_year 561038548.9752324 
For those keeping track, this means that a 1 NAV stake is expected to take approximately 17.79 years to see a return in the current network (and, even then, only if you happen to be online at exactly the right time and nobody else stakes it first). Coincidentally, this is where that "expected time to stake" number comes from, which I've seen people asking about. I didn't actually look that one up in the code, so I'm not sure how their exact equation differs from mine, but I arrived at the exact same numbers they did, so it's likely similar (and probably more concise, because I am both a verbose writer and programmer, if you hadn't noticed). A 1000 NAV stake, using what I am calling network math for ease of reference, is expected to take around 6.49 days. My suspicion is that the reason this is sometimes more sporadic is that going by the target alone, and testing every second, a 1000 NAV stake should be getting a hit around once every 8 hours. I generated a file of 31536000 hashes (one for each second in the year), using the rules NAV uses to create hashes, and came up with the following table.:
*Assumes a target of 0x1a183258. I forget which block I pulled this from, but it's still around there. This unpacks to a value of: 0x0000000000001832580000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 Calc wins : Mathematical calculation for how many hashes you should win, given the target Hash wins : This was pulled from the file with a year's worth of random hashes. N-M Wins : The number of wins network math says you should get Hash time : The average time between wins in the randomized file for the given NAV amount N-M time : The amount of time network math says you should wait between wins NAV : Calc wins : Hash wins : N-M wins : Hash time : N-M time 1 : 1.05 : 1 : 0.05 : ~1 year : 17.79 years 5 : 5.29 : 7 : 0.28 : 41.66 days : 3.56 years 10 : 10.59 : 10 : 0.56 : 34.27 days : 1.78 years 50 : 52.95 : 44 : 2.81 : 7.49 days : 129.87 days 100 : 105.89 : 107 : 5.62 : 3.42 days : 64.94 days 200 : 211.79 : 212 : 11.24 : 41.24 hours : 32.47 days 500 : 529.48 : 532 : 28.11 : 16.39 hours : 12.99 days 1000 : 1058.97 : 1050 : 56.21 : 8.33 hours : 6.49 days 2000 : 2117.93 : 2109 : 112.42 : 4.15 hours : 3.25 days 5000 : 5294.83 : 5326 : 281.05 : 98.62 minutes : 1.30 days 1000000 : 1058966.42 : 1058455 : 56210.04 : 29.79 seconds : 9.35 minutes 
So obviously, a bit of disparity between the target-based times and the network calculated times. I would guess this has to do with other people on the network cutting you off from time values, and orphaned transactions where you did get the right value, but somebody else made a weightier one, but this is where my ability to really verify exactly what is happening starts dwindling. The disparity in N-M wins and Calc wins indicates that the target is currently too easy, and should adjust upwards, because right now coins on the network are 18.84 times weightier (calc wins column / n-m wins column) in hashing power than they should be based on the total network weight. But this is also where the whole "50 groups of 1 coin has a 63.58% chance to hit 2/100 whereas 1 group of 50 coins has a 100% chance to hit 100/100" thing comes into play.
Since the network is largely broken up into groups of, on average, 1500 coins, we're actually looking at ~12467.52 groups of 1500 coins vying to win any given block. Given the target, a group of 1500 coins should have a 0.0050369...% chance to win any given coinstake ((target * 150000000000) / maximum_hash_value). This means that the chance that at least one of the 12467.52 staking groups will match for a given second is 1 - (1 - 0.000050369...)^12467.52 = 0.4663, or 46.63%. This places the actual amount that coins are overweight a bit closer to 13.989 times. (network should have ~1/30 chance (3.33...%) to win any given second, 46.63 / 3.33...% = 13.989).
However, as mentioned, the software itself can get in the way of that, so this might just be due to a quirk of how the NAV software searches for matches, since it will abandon any seconds prior to the most recently accepted block. If you were cut off from 13 seconds in every 100, that would account for the weight disparity. In any case, I would probably trust the network math times over the pure math ones, if you're just trying to get a feel for how long you'll likely wait between stakes. What this really translates to is that, although a 1 NAV stake will probably have one second out of the year that will hash in it's favour, even running 24/7 you're likely to miss 17 of those before you actually have all the right conditions to win.
Interestingly, I did manage to find one 9.99 NAV stake that won after only 5 days; so it can happen. But it's all still random.

How does this affect my staking rewards?

tldr; it doesn't
Fortunately, NAV pays out the amount you should receive down to the second. Let's take this block at random. 1119.84133642 NAV coinstake, generated 3.82575342 NAV. The time of the previous transaction that created that coinstake was 1514741456 (see the "Raw Transaction" tab). The time of the current transaction is 1514741456. that's all we need to go on.
>>> SECONDS_IN_DAY = 86400 >>> DAYS_IN_YEAR = 365 >>> CENT = 1000000 # .01 NAV >>> COIN = 100000000 # 1.0 NAV >>> REWARD_PERCENT = 5 * CENT # will be 4 * CENT with community fund >>> # All NAV amounts in satoshi (navtoshi? natoshi?) ... stake = 111984133642 >>> # time of this stake ... stake_time = 1516896224 >>> # time of the transaction that made this stake >>> stake_prev_time = 1514741456 >>> # I'm not 100% positive why it converts to cent/seconds first, ... # but this is what the code does, so we need to as well if we ... # want to be accurate ... cent_seconds = (stake * (stake_time - stake_prev_time)) // CENT 241299827679 >>> # Now they undo the cent_seconds for some reason? I'm not sure. ... # This does, however, create a minimum coin stake for any given time. ... # 1 NAV, for instance, will not generate anything if it stakes until ... # it is exactly one day old (with a whopping 0.00013698 NAV). ... # The minimum NAV stake you can get a reward from if you get lucky ... # and stake at the end of two hours is 11 NAV. ... coin_day = ((cent_seconds * CENT) // COIN) // SECONDS_IN_DAY 27928 >>> stake_reward = (coin_day * REWARD_PERCENT) // DAYS_IN_YEAR 382575342 
note: // is a floor division. For example, 3 / 2 = 1.5, 3 // 2 = 1
And we come out the other end with exactly 3.82575342 NAV. Those are the only variables that affect your payout for staking. You then also get whatever the fees happen to be. There's not any magic to it, and so far as I can tell there's also not a limit. If you legitimately wait those 17 years for your 1 NAV to stake, your eventual payout will be on the order of 0.84 NAV. Anyways, that's pretty much all there is to your payout; it's very direct.

So is it worth it for me to stake?

tldr; personal preference
Honestly, this is entirely up to you. If you're in the "month or more" camp of coinstakers, it's probably not worth your while to be running 24/7 unless you're just really into securing the network (which, to be fair, I am all about that, so feel free). But with the blockchain at the small size it is right now, and if you're going to be using your computer anyways, it probably doesn't hurt to just run it in the background and see if you get lucky. Like pointed out, the actual amount you get is not affected by any of this. All that this means is that it is harder to predict exactly when you will get a stake. If you're concerned about financially supporting the staking, then NavTechServers has created this handy calculator to help out. From a mathematical standpoint, it's ironically much more likely for small coinstakers to get stakes if they are running 24/7, but from a financial standpoint, you're probably not getting enough to care to, so it's up to your preferences.

Cold Staking is not staking while offline

tldr; there is no magic that will allow blocks to be created without nodes on the network
I've also seen a bit of confusion over what cold staking is likely to bring, and want to ensure people aren't upset when it does get rolled out. Specifically the misconception that staking with offline coins is the same thing as staking while offline. It is physically impossible to generate a block without something connected to the network, and you only get staking rewards once you have generated a block, because the blockchain doesn't really have the tools to tell who is online and participating beyond "who made this block."
All that cold staking means is that the private keys to use your NAV to buy things or move their address are not on the server doing the staking. In general, this is accomplished via a smart contract and a secondary set of keys that is given permission to use your coins, but only for staking. If those keys are used for moving the a coin from one account to another, then the smart contract will flag it as an incorrect usage. This means that if someone hacks into your server, the only thing they could steal are the keys that permit them to stake your blocks. This is much easier to correct than someone stealing your private keys and moving your NAV to a separate address. Particl's overview of their cold staking system is a good read to get some baseline expectations.
Most implementations of cold staking do open up the possibility to sign your coins over to someone else to stake, which opens up the entirely new 51% attack vector of asking people to just GIVE you their network weight. But given that I have just recently explained to you all why one person owning a majority of the coin staking weight on the network is dangerous, I shouldn't have to tell you why this would be a bad idea, right?
RIGHT??

Summary

In any case, that's about it. Chances are the answer to the question "am I staking" is "yes", so long as the wallet tells you that it's staking. Unfortunately (but also fortunately), waiting longer only increases your chances insofar as you are trying more, but when you do eventually stake, you will be paid out based on how long you have waited, so there's not much lost.
I could go into much more depth about all this but this was about as concise as I could get it while still showing most of my work. I'd also be happy to address any other questions that arise from this, and obviously if somebody who knows better finds anything wrong with any of the details here let me know. If you wanted to get into this more in-depth, I've created a Python script which explains some of the technical aspects more thoroughly (including how to unpack the compact target number into the full value being checked in the code), and allows you to get hands-on with real block values. You can download it here. Happy hodling, everybody.
submitted by i_adore_you to NavCoin [link] [comments]

Flourish&: A framework to structure your life around your values 7 days a week

Flourish&

Given you have found this manual on Productivity, the chances are that you have a lot of commitments already or you want to find time for some new ones. It can be a commitment to your job, family, general/mental health, your side ventures or whatever else it can be. The chances are also that you often find yourself debating and thinking how much attention you should allocate to one or another area of your life, which often leads to an inconsistent approach and therefore inconsistent results.
I am proposing you to take a scientific approach to yourself, discover your uniqueness, respect it and optimise the performance through Flourish& framework. This framework aims to assist you in capturing your Values (e.g. family, health etc.) and distilling a transparent set of Actions you have to do day-in and day-out to achieve your Goals. Having an easy-to-use model for your daily life is critical to free up your mental bandwidth and let your energy focus on achieving things that matter and require that energy.

Introduction

To explain the key benefits of the framework and give you an upfront life example, let’s have a look at a basic situation where this framework will step in.
We all have been there when you get back home from work and then you start thinking whether you should go to the gym or stay home and do some research for your side-venture and after some time of debating between the two, potentially ending up doing none of the two and feeling demotivated. What are the real negative impacts of this scenario?
You didn’t do what you had to do to achieve your goals. You understand that to achieve your goals you will have to work for them, but how exactly do you achieve a goal like ’Be fit’ or ‘Be an entrepreneur’? These are very general goals, yet these are the ones that we tend to have more often. The biggest challenge is the lack of clarity around how today can contribute to achieving these future general goals. But it shouldn’t be this way and once you have clarity around your daily actions it becomes crystal clear what is it exactly you have to do to achieve your general goals. Also, on the discipline side of things, it gives you the direct price you will have to pay in the future for neglecting your actions today.
How this exercise will help? You will design a link between today and your general goals through a set of smaller Actions that you will do day-in and day-out, which will build up over time into the bigger general Goals that you have.
You have spent your valuable mental energy and time on debating what is it exactly that you should be doing that evening. That is also referred to as ‘decision fatigue’, which means that by the time you got home you already have done a handful of decisions throughout the day and the quality of future ones tends do go down. There is a proven record that as the day goes by, our decision budget is drained and the quality of such decisions deteriorates. The example I like the most is a study done on 1,112 judicial parole hearings. Among all factors that could have affected the result of the parole hearing (race, age, sex etc.) it was the time of the day that affected the outcome of the hearing the most. At the beginning of the day, the judges had the energy to make a positive decision, where 65% of the paroles were granted during the morning hearing. But as the day went by, the number has been steadily decreasing, but the convict cases have been the same as in the morning. That is because judges had less and less energy to flip the coin in the opposite direction.
How this exercise will help? You will have a personal roadmap to stick to daily eliminating the need of asking “What I should do today to ‘Be fit’?” and then doubting whether what you have done builds on what you have been doing previously and whether it brings you any closer to your Goal. These kinds of questions drain your mental energy, don’t do it, you have better things to spend it on.
You have allowed the circumstances, which led up to your decision point, determine what you were going to do that evening. The example relatable to most of us is letting the day at work determine how the rest of the day will go. Of course, you should pay attention to your energy levels as sometimes we genuinely are drained from our day jobs, but remember how good you felt that day when you thought you just didn’t have it in you and then still did it and felt awesome after? In simple terms, don’t take the passenger seat, which means a lack of control. It’s not the circumstances themselves that burn us out, it’s the lack of control that is the problem.
How this exercise will help? Through sticking to the above-mentioned roadmap, you will maintain the control over your life and most importantly you will cultivate that feeling of control inside your mind. That feeling of control will make it easier for you to respond to the demands of life because you will know that you dictate how they affect you.

The Wheel of Wellbeing

The first step of having a well-balanced life lies not with activities or goals, but with working out elements your Wheel of wellbeing. Through answering a simple question ‘What is important to you?’ you are encouraged to work out a list of Values, which should be completely free from the pressure that society or your experience might put on you. This list is a very personal element of this framework and there are no expectations whatsoever about what it should or should not include (although I will put some examples below to give you an idea of the shape Values can have). This list will inevitably grow and change inline with you and it is normal to revisit your wheel and add or remove elements. In my experience, it took me more than several iterations until I got my wheel free from elements, which were expected from me rather than being deeply important to me.
The biggest advantage and benefit of having such list and making sure that your game is strong in every direction (more on that later) is that you naturally diversify your bets as you go along. Setbacks in life are a given and they will happen, however, they are most likely to be limited to one or two values on your list. First of all, knowing that some part of your life sucks but not the whole of it is a game-changer as it allows you to draw the energy from other well-performing values to get things right with the set-back. Second, we are the creatures of habit and there is scientific evidence to suggest that we perform better when surrounded by things that we are accustomed to. With a lack of balance, you tend to focus on a limited set of values, therefore exposing yourself to reduced performance should a change occur in the values in focus. Having a well-balanced lifestyle surrounds you with consistent habitual performance on all sides and digesting even a set of changes will not be a big deal or put your performance at risk.
Core Values
We are all humans and getting our biology right underpins the journey to being a high-performer. Our biology is broken down into several Values, which together form a Core Values list. These are the Values that can be applied to every single one of us because they are at the core of human performance. The unique thing about Core Values is that these tend to give you the most grounding effect as you have the most control around them. These are the Values people most frequently tend to take energy from to fuel performance in other values.
Items listed below are just examples, however, I highly recommend everyone to have them on her is his radar, even if just to spark some questions so that eventually you will consider adopting some of them.
Other values
This is the part, where you should ask yourself ‘What is important to me?’ and physically start scribbling down everything that comes to your mind. While doing so, try as hard as you can to ignore any outer pressure persuading you to feel strongly about something (like the list below, for example)
Some examples of other Values:
Exercise
Spend time on asking yourself ‘What is important to me?’ and capture on paper everything that comes to your mind. When you are finished, distil it into a set of values. Try to include only things that are important and exclude things that you think should be important. Sample output below does not mean that you are expected to have 12 values, I now have between 7 and 9 and I started with less. Acknowledge that this is a process.
Sample output
Value
General health
Physical activity
Biomechanics
Nutrition
Sleep & Recovery
Mental energy
Family
Relationship with children
Giving back to the community
Friends
Work
Side projects

Goals
We will now start to build upon your Values, so you must be comfortable with your current list of Values for now. For each Value, we will work out a Goal, which will represent your target state.
Exercise
For each value, create a Value-Goal pair by asking yourself ‘What is it I need to be/have to say that I am smashing it?’. Try to be specific and avoid vague terms, however, it is acceptable to have goals, which sometimes will be hard to measure and will represent a 'state' rather than a 'result'. For example, one of my goals is to ‘Be close with my daughter’ and it’s not something that I can measure, however through my Actions I am in the state with which I’m comfortable.
Sample output
Value Goal
General health Be in a healthy state / Lower my cholesterol to [X]
Physical activity Like what I see in the mirror / Do 100kg in Bench-press
Biomechanics Be able to reach my toes
Nutrition Reach weight/BMI of [X]
Sleep & Recovery Lower number of mental breakdowns by 10%
Mental energy Be mindful
Family Be close with my family
Relationship with children Be close with my children
Giving back to the community Fight homelessness
Friends Be in touch with my friends
Side projects Have my own business

Activity
Throughout this exercise, you are carefully building up your framework based on your values. You are scientifically looking at your Values, analyse them, understand your Goals and now you will design the Activities, which will act as a connecting proxy between you and your goals.
In very simple terms, imagine you plan to buy a car in 2 years. You ask your bank for savings account interest rate and they calculate you a schedule of monthly deposits you will have to make each month over 2 years to reach your car goal. Having a clear schedule you have committed to, means you don’t think every month - What do I do if I want to buy a car? Do I deposit in a savings account this month? Buy some bitcoin next month? Invest in shares next year? You come up with a realistic plan, do research and have faith in it. And if the plan was realistic and you have been faithful, you get to buy your car in 2 years. It’s very similar to this framework.
Exercise
For each Value-Goal pair, ask yourself ‘What is it I need to do to reach my goal?'. The answers will vary based on goals and preferences, however, the rule is that you should be in a position to start the activity right away. For example, for your Goal 'Like what I see in the mirror', do not put 'Run a marathon' and instead assess your current state and do underlying research on what more feasible steps are, for example 'Go for a run 3 times a week'. Remember, it is fine to change the activities as you go as your preferences change.
Sample output
Value Goal Activity
General health Be in a healthy state / Lower my cholesterol to [X] Do an annual health check
Physical activity Like what I see in the mirror / Do 100kg in Bench-press Go for a run 3 times a week
Biomechanics Be able to reach my toes Do body stretching at least once a week
Nutrition Reach weight/BMI of [X] Follow a plant-based diet
Sleep & Recovery Lower number of mental breakdowns by 10% Sleep 8 hours a day
Mental energy Be mindful Meditate everyday/weekend
Family Be close with my family Call my parents at least every week
Relationship with children Be close with my children Special time for me and my children every week
Giving back to the community Fight homelessness Attend social service event at least every quarter
Friends Be in touch with my friends Meet my friends at least every two weeks
Side projects Have my own business Spend 2 hours on Project X every week

Tracking
Daily tracking is vital on the journey to better understanding your performance towards your goals and how your decisions and actions reflect on your progress. The benefit of daily tracking is that it can serve as a reminder about your statement, which is that you are at the centre of your life, your decisions have a direct impact on the quality of your future life and that you have the power to make changes now and see how it impacts your future.
As we have established already, you cannot run the risk of letting your daily activities fall into the hands of other people’s will. A well thought through Values list should be designed, where you focus on things that matter to you the most and what your Goals look like. To achieve these goals, you establish a routine activity, something you do day-in and day-out because you know it will bring you to your goal. This is not about holding yourself accountable, you won’t need it as you already believe in your Values and relevant Activities. This is about helping you shape the activity of your day to reflect your values, supporting you on days where you are confused or not sure what you should do. In other words - live life on your terms. And very important - get satisfaction from following simple steps daily as you know they bring you to your bigger ambitious Goals.
Exercise
For each set of Value-Goal-Activity, ask yourself ‘How often will I be tracking myself?’. This can be daily for something you plan to do daily (such as daily sleep) or monthly (such as spend some quality time with your parents). Having defined the tracking frequency you will now need to review your daily activities daily, weekly activities weekly and so on. I have a weekly planner, where for each week I write out the things I want to do this week in bullet points and cross them off every day. For anything with a different frequency (like quarterly or yearly) I keep this in a separate place. If there is interest, I can share my layout, which is effortless.
Sample output
Value Goal Activity Tracking
General health Be in a healthy state / Lower my cholesterol to [X] Do an annual health check Annual
Physical activity Like what I see in the mirror / Do 100kg in Bench-press Go for a run 3 times a week Daily
Biomechanics Be able to reach my toes Do body stretching at least once a week Weekly
Nutrition Reach weight/BMI of [X] Follow a plant-based diet Daily
Sleep & Recovery Lower number of mental breakdowns by 10% Sleep 8 hours a day Daily
Mental energy Be mindful Meditate everyday/weekend Daily/Weekly
Family Be close with my family Call my parents at least every week Weekly
Relationship with children Be close with my children Special time for me and my children every week Weekly
Giving back to the community Fight homelessness Attend social service event at least every quarter Quarterly
Friends Be in touch with my friends Meet my friends at least every two weeks Semi-weekly
Side projects Have my own business Spend 2 hours on Project X every week Weekly

Flexibility
On the final note, I’d like to share with you my lesson. This framework is designed to push-back on demands of the world around you, structure and tackle them in a balanced and organised way. Despite the focus being on pushing back on the world around, it can also put some pressure on you at times to keep you Goal-oriented, however, sometimes you will have to learn to be kind to yourself and don’t shame yourself for missing an activity. If out of 5 days you miss your activities for 1 day, it’s not that 1 day that matters, but these 4 where you have been faithful to your journey towards your Goals. Reflect on what went wrong, learn your lesson, don’t dwell too much on it and move on.
I am glad to share this framework with you guys and hope you will find it helpful on your journey to becoming a better and more productive person. Please share with me your comments and thoughts.

UPDATE: Formatting. Why is there no 'preview post' option?
submitted by Space_Qwerty to productivity [link] [comments]

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